The United States’ relationship with China was strained during the Obama administration, with sharp differences over economic and trade issues, cyberattacks and Beijing’s assertive maneuvers in the South China Sea.
But since taking office last month, President Trump has signaled that matters could get even more contentious, as his administration has vowed to project more military might in Asia and to impose high tariffs on Chinese goods. China could respond with its own punitive measures.
A new report by a bipartisan task force of prominent China specialists is warning of dire consequences, including the possibility of a trade war or an armed skirmish, unless the United States can find a more effective way to engage China.
The 72-page report, to be issued Tuesday by the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations and the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego, urged the Trump administration to take a tougher line on China, while reaffirming principles that have guided relations between the two nations since the 1970s.
The United States’ relationship with China was strained during the Obama administration, with sharp differences over economic and trade issues, cyberattacks and Beijing’s assertive maneuvers in the South China Sea.
But since taking office last month, President Trump has signaled that matters could get even more contentious, as his administration has vowed to project more military might in Asia and to impose high tariffs on Chinese goods. China could respond with its own punitive measures.
A new report by a bipartisan task force of prominent China specialists is warning of dire consequences, including the possibility of a trade war or an armed skirmish, unless the United States can find a more effective way to engage China.
The 72-page report, to be issued Tuesday by the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations and the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego, urged the Trump administration to take a tougher line on China, while reaffirming principles that have guided relations between the two nations since the 1970s.
At times, the report, “U.S. Policy Toward China: Recommendations for a New Administration,” seemed at odds with the new president. It argued that the White House should support a trade agreement similar to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Mr. Trump has already rejected, to strengthen economic ties in Asia.
And it cautioned the administration not tamper with Washington’s commitment to a One China policy — a clear reference to the president’s recent suggestion that the United States could ignore what had become a central tenet of the relationship after President Richard M. Nixon’s groundbreaking trip to China in 1972.
The report urged swift action to reassure the United States’ allies in Asia about its security commitments there. It also recommended that the administration initiate talks, as soon as possible, with China’s leaders and develop constructive policies on what the task force identified as the six most critical areas of engagement, including efforts to halt North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
“We’re really at a critical inflection point,” said Orville Schell, a scholar at the Asia Society and a chairman of the task force. “We are worried about the increasingly antagonistic relationship” and “think the U.S. needs to up its game in terms of the effort its puts into high-level negotiations.”
Mr. Trump has given no clear indication of how he will deal with China, but his administration has hinted at a more confrontational approach. The commerce secretary, Wilbur L. Ross Jr., has complained about Chinese tariffs, and Mr. Trump named Peter Navarro, a strident critic of China, to lead a new White House office overseeing trade and industrial policy.
The defense secretary, Jim Mattis, has said the United States would stand “shoulder to shoulder” with Japan and its Asian allies, which angered China. He has also given China some reassurance, however, saying on Saturday in Tokyo that military maneuvers in the South China Sea were unnecessary. Diplomacy, he said, should resolve the differences.
The task force rebuked Mr. Trump’s questioning of the One China policy, by which the United States recognizes the government in Beijing, rather than that of Taiwan, as representing China.
The report said that “it would be exceedingly dangerous to unilaterally abandon our longstanding One China policy — an understanding that has served as the basis for the U.S. relationship with China, helped protect Taiwan’s security, prosperity and democracy, and preserved peace and stability in Asia for almost four decades.”
“Across-the-board tariffs or challenging the One China policy is not the way to go,” said Susan L. Shirk, a professor at the University of California, San Diego, and a chairwoman of the task force. “We shouldn’t undervalue what we’ve achieved over the years — a more or less peaceful Asia, a big market for exports and a key partner on global problems, like climate change. If it was to become unhinged, it’s not just chaos in Asia but destabilizing for the global economy.”
United States-China relations have been charged for decades, particularly after the military suppression of pro-democracy demonstrations in 1989 in Beijing. But the task force said that American policies, regardless of whether a Democrat or Republican was president, had helped integrate China into the global economy and encouraged it to adhere to a rules-based international system.
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But relations worsened after the 2008 financial crisis, which China withstood well with a huge stimulus package, it said. Beijing’s leaders grew more hostile toward economic and military supremacy by the United States. In 2013, with Xi Jinping as president, these tendencies hardened.
Cheng Li, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said that as China’s economy grew, so did its abilities and determination, and old suspicions that the United States wanted to contain it resurfaced.
“China’s goal is clear: It wants to be a regional power,” said Mr. Li, who was not on the task force. “Xi Jinping wants to revitalize China’s glorious past. And, with the world’s second-largest economy, it wants to build a stronger military.”
The task force report said the Chinese government also tightened restrictions on American internet companies, nongovernmental organizations and media outlets.
As relations between Washington and Beijing started deteriorating, the task force was formed two years ago to make recommendations for the next president. Its members included Charlene Barshefsky, a former United States trade representative; Winston Lord, a former United States ambassador to China; Kurt M. Campbell, a former State Department officer; and Evan S. Medeiros, a special assistant to President Barack Obama on Asia.
As they began to meet, consensus emerged that the United States needed to strengthen its resolve and show greater firmness in dealing with China.
The task force urged the administration to keep a strong military presence in Asia. It also said new policy and diplomatic tools, including sanctions, litigation over trade disputes and the use of reciprocal measures, were needed. For example, if China restricted investment or trade, the United States might need to do the same.
The administration should make clear its resolve to combat climate change, avoid protectionism, reaffirm the One China policy, bolster its military commitments in Asia and, effectively, stay the course, the task force said.
The task force warned that if the new administration alters the basic course that has long guided United States relations with China, it could “destabilize not only the bilateral relationship, but also the region as a whole.”
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