The year, 2015, is still about two years away. But the battle line is drawn between President Jonathan and his supporters on one hand, and the opposition on the other hand, over who governs Nigeria in 2015. Interestingly, the PDP is also facing stiff opposition, from within its fold, thus making it vulnerable to the opposition, by the day.
In 2007, the Presidential contest was an all North affair. Late President Yar’Adua,
contested on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP) while the trio of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Sokoto governor, Attahiru Bafarawa and Nigeria’s former military Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd), all ran on different political platforms as presidential candidates.
While Atiku ran on the platform of the Action Congress (AC), as it was then known, Bafarawa and Buhari, ran on the platform of Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) and All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) respectively.
In the end however, they not only fail to make any impressive impact at the polls, the trio were roundly defeated in both their states of origin, and their immediate wards, during the presidential polls.
Although they all attributed their defeat to the alleged ruling PDP’s rigging machinery, if the Buhari’s philosophy about rigging in an election in Nigeria is to be believed, then one could be safe to conclude that perhaps, the trio were not “popular,” in their respective domains. Buhari once said that a politician could only rig successfully in an election in an area where such a politician was “very popular.”
2007 came and passed and a northerner emerged as President. However, mid way into his tenure, the northerner died, as such 2011 became a fierce contest, following the insistence on President Jonathan to run, in spite of the fact that the slot was supposed to be for the North. And so, the opposition parties cashed in on the sentiment to field northerners as Presidential candidates, following the defeat of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar at the PDP’s primary by President Jonathan.
But in 2011 again, the opposition did not behave as if it learnt any lessons from the 2007 experience. Like what happened preparatory to the 2007 election, the trio of Atiku, Buhari and Tinubu again began meetings for the 2011 contest. But eventually, they again went their separate ways. Atiku returned to the PDP, Buhari and others formed the CPC, while Tinubu stuck to his ACN. Atiku was to later contest for PDP presidential primaries, but lost to President Jonathan.
However, in spite of going their separate ways, Buhari’s CPC and Tinubu’s ACN, tried a last minute merger, but it again never worked as both parties mismanaged the entire process. That again, is now history.
But another history is about to be made, as the country prepares for the 2015 polls. Already, politicians are re-aligning in preparation for the polls. The major opposition parties in the country, have all come together to form the APC, with a view to forming a formidable front to do battle with the PDP in 2015.
With APC, the opposition for now has 11 states. One, each in the South-East and South-South respectively. Five in the South-West, one each in the North-West and North-Central respectively, and two in the North-East. Although they may have just one governor in the North-West for now, the party has a strong presence in the zone. And depending on how PDP manages its affairs in this zone, Kaduna, Kano and Katsina, are for now vulnerable to APC.
The party also believes that other PDP governors and chieftains would join them before the 2015 contest. In their wisdom, they believe strongly that the only way to chase President Jonathan and his followers out of power was to come together under one umbrella to prosecute the political war, hence the formation of APC.
Sunday Sun however gathered reliably that one thing that is likely to make or mar the group’s main objective is the ability or otherwise of the leading figures in the group to downplay their ambitions of wanting to be the presidential candidate and running mate of the group at all cost.
Sunday Sun recalls in 2007 for instance that when it became clear that to defeat the PDP, there must be some form of alliance between the AC and ANPP, attempt was made to reach out to Atiku, with the sole aim of talking him into burying his presidential ambition, especially considering that he was only cleared at the eleventh hour to run.
But the AC and ANPP men mismanaged the whole process, thus allowing it to degenerate into verbal attacks between Atiku and Buhari, with the duo using unprintable adjectives to describe themselves in the media.
It is also common knowledge that Atiku’s last minute decision then to dump Tinubu for Senator Ben Obi as presidential running mate, is responsible for whatever cold relationship that may have existed between Atiku and Tinubu till date.
Again in 2011, when it became obvious that to dislodge Jonathan and the PDP from the centre, CPC and ACN must work together, the parties again blew away the opportunity. Rather than work together, both parties worked at cross purposes, to the extent that PDP’s Presidential candidate, Jonathan, floored ACN’s presidential candidate, Nuhu Ribadu, in most South-West States, including Lagos, with the exception of Osun State, where the governor, who had just been sworn in then, needed to prove a point.
And like in 2007, CPC leaders and ACN leaders called each other unprintable names, in 2011, pointing accusing fingers at each other over the turn of event. Therefore, how APC manages the twin issues of ambition and personal interest among the leaders of the group would go a long way in determining the success or otherwise of the group’s political battle against the PDP in 2015.
For now, while some of the northerners have shown interest in the race, others have not. Yet, there are others who may not run, but who have big roles to play in shaping the course of events.
Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, IBB
He was one of the three retired military Generals of northern extraction that provided both the platform and financial war chest that saw to the successful drafting of President Olusegun Obasanjo into the race in 1999, and assisted greatly in making him emerge as Nigeria’s President, in spite of the groundswell of opposition, from the South-West, his immediate constituency, against his candidature.
IBB will certainly not run for the Presidency. But he is seen as a great political asset, therefore, whoever he backs from the North, may as well turn out to be the candidate to beat. But he alone cannot do it. He requires the support of other like minds to build the required consensus.
General Muhammadu Buhari
He was Presidential candidate in 2003, 2007 and 2011. Unknown to him, on all the three occasions, most of those who prompted him to run, especially from the North, only wanted to use his mass appeal for their own personal political gain. In 2003 and 2007 for instance, Sunday Sun can authoritatively reveal that one of his trusted allies, who though is not a politician in a strict sense of it, but who was one of those in charge of his campaign, acted as a mole for the PDP and the presidency then. While he was handsomely rewarded in monetary terms, Buhari was left home and dry.
In 2011 again, the same person and his cohorts, mismanaged Buhari and eventually mismanaged the merger between CPC and ACN. In fact, at a point, these people told Buhari, he could go it alone without the merger, a thing they knew was impossible. But Buhari appears to have learnt a lesson or two from his past experiences, as none of these people featured prominently in the current merger talk between the CPC and other opposition parties. Buhari may have a mass appeal but the elites in the North, who have the material resources to prosecute electoral battle in Nigeria, still cannot trust him. In spite of the series of explanation he had and has continued to offer on why he was drafted to be Military Head of State in 1983, these elites are still not pacified, just as some of them cannot understand why he agreed to serve the Abacha’s administration, which according to one of the leading politicians in the North, was “killing everybody.”
To this end, these groups of elites believed he does not have enough democratic credentials to be the country’s President. Although, Buhari has since signified his intention to run again, if APC gives him the nod, investigations however reveal that APC would do better, without Buhari as presidential candidate. But whoever will emerge from the North, needs Buhari’s blessing, so that the mass appeal he enjoys in the region could be transferred to the person, provided, he agrees to go round the North, to campaign for such a fellow, by raising the fellow’s hand.
Atiku Abubakar
In the North today, he remains one of the most formidable politicians and presidential aspirant, who have a strong presence in the media. But while his media team seems formidable, his political strategists appear not to be as formidable. Those who hold this view believe for instance that after successfully winning his several political and legal battles between 2003 and 2007, he ought to have announced to Nigerians his withdrawal from the race, considering the fact that he stood little or no chance then, owing to the fact that he was only cleared at the eleventh hour to run. Political observers believe that if he had taken the path, and returned to the scene in 2011, he perhaps may have made better impact, as he would have enjoyed the sympathy of Nigerians. Like Buhari, those who make things happen in the North cannot trust Atiku enough with power, especially because one of the power brokers in the North was the one who had impressed it on Obasanjo then to drop Atiku, as his running mate in 2003. And Atiku is aware of this notorious fact.
Atiku will run for 2015. But picking the PDP’s ticket would no doubt be a Herculean task. And unlike in 2007, when one of the opposition parties provided its platform for him to run, Atiku is not on the list of possible PDP members that may be drafted by the yet to be registered APC, to run on its platform.
General Aliyu Gusau
Like IBB, he was part of the three retired Generals from the North that brought in Obasanjo in 1999. But unlike IBB, he has refused to make any comment concerning 2015, since he lost out preparatory to the 2007 and 2011 PDP presidential primaries. However, he also has his men across the states in the country, just as he is highly connected globally. Therefore, doing 2015 political business with him will not be a bad idea, even though he appears unelectable by Nigeria’s standard.
Muazu Babangida Aliyu
He is the current Niger State governor and the incumbent chairman, Northern States Governors Forum, (NSGF). He has been mentioned as one of those interested in the race. Apart from his recent alleged recant before President Jonathan on issues he has been propagating since after the 2011 elections, Aliyu does appear like a courageous politician, who has a lot to contribute in terms of debate towards the 2015 race. If anything, his remarks last Thursday in Kaduna, at the NSGF meeting about the NGF election, where he confirmed Amaechi, as the authentic winner of the just concluded NGF election, in spite of the dangling PDP suspension hammer, is a pointer to the fact that recant or not, Aliyu still has some elements of courage in him. If he remains the NSGF chairman till 2015 presidential poll, he would surely rally his colleagues behind a northern presidential candidate irrespective of the line his party toes. For he had at the first meeting of the Forum, after the 2011 poll, long before he talked about the single term pact, told his colleagues that by 2015, they would all support the position of the region.
Aminu Tambuwal
He is the Speaker of the House of Representatives. He is from Sokoto State. His governor has just been suspended from the PDP. Sokoto State is in the North-West, the zone that has the highest number of votes in the entire northern region. He is a Fulani man, and it is believed that an average Fulani man is a fighter. Shortly after President Jonathan reneged on the zoning arrangement in the PDP, Tambuwal became the first to test the political waters and triumphed over the party, with the support of the opposition. He was elected Speaker, a position, zoned by the PDP to the South-West. Since then, his relationship with the opposition has continued to blossom. In fact, Sunday Sun can authoritatively reveal that he is one of the PDP stalwarts on the card of the opposition, as a possible presidential candidate. IBB has also publicly endorsed him by urging him to seek a higher office. If Tambuwal emerges and runs against Jonathan, 2015 may as well be the termination date for the PDP’s reign in Nigeria, as several PDP stalwarts from the North, would not mind undoing the PDP in respective states, just to teach Jonathan and the party, a bitter political lesson. Already, even President Jonathan, Sunday Sun learnt that the president is aware of the fact that Tambuwal may run against him on the platform of the opposition. He may not be at home with the governors since he needs them to win a presidential election but his cordial relationship with the 359 members in the House, would assist him a great deal, in reaching the governors. More so, all he needs is to show interest. In spite of Obasanjo’s anger that he shortchanged his zone over the speakership, he still enjoys the Ota oracle’s support, just as he enjoys IBB’s support. But if someone else other than Jonathan runs on the platform of the PDP, Tambuwal may as well forget about the duo’s support.
Senator David Mark
He is from Otukpo in Benue State. He is the current Senate President. He is the only one in this current democratic dispensation to occupy the position twice in quick succession. He has brought stability to the Senate. He has not said so, but Sunday Sun can authoritatively reveal that he is not contemplating returning to the Senate, having been elected four times. He is already grooming a successor. But the successor may be a bad product to market, if he (successor) continues the way he is going. Mark’s major problem for now seems to do more with the people around him, including his aides, who have continued to give him a bad public image. His support for Jonathan for the 2011poll, dealt a heavy blow on the ambition of some northerners. But Jonathan has not really paid back. Instead, at the beginning, the presidency sent his attack dogs after him, believing that he could be a threat to his 2015 ambition. But like a man not given to cowardice, Mark was said to have gone to Villa to confront Jonathan with the allegation that he was behind the attacks. Although Jonathan was said to have denied the allegation. If and when those who decide the fate of Nigeria in the PDP, think about a northern minority Christian, Mark would certainly top the chart. Like Tambuwal, he also enjoys the support of IBB and Obasanjo. But whether he runs or not, he has a role to play in the northern project for 2015, even though most of the northern elites don’t trust him. But as a big player in the North-central and in the middle belt politics, he will be strategic to the 2015 contest, provided he would not behave the way he did preparatory to the 2011 poll contest.
General TY Danjuma
Like IBB and Gusau, he was one of the facilitators of the Obasanjo’s project. He is a great facilitator from behind the scene. He is one who spends heavily towards ensuring the success at the poll of any candidate he supports. Sunday Sun cannot confirm as at press time, whether or not he has given his tacit support to any of the numerous presidential aspirants from the north. But recent happenings suggest that he is not likely to back Jonathan. He was said to be one of those who had advised Jonathan against running in 2011. He is also a strong personality in Middle Belt and northern Christians’ politics. If he joins the power brokers in the search for a formidable consensus presidential candidate from the North, ignoring his advice would be at the peril of the project promoters.
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso
He is the incumbent Kano governor. He is also fraternizing with the opposition. In fact, unknown to many, the appearance of his poster alongside that of Buhari, in 2011, in Kano, helped him a great deal to return to the Kano State Government House. He is an Obasanjo’s person. But he is also one of those being considered by the opposition to fly its ticket. He has done well in Kano. But he has not done enough to build political contacts across the country. He is one of the PDP governors, who even when he chooses to remain in the party, in the event he fails to run for the presidency, will not likely support the party’s candidate, especially, if the candidate is Jonathan.
Chief Audu Ogbeh
A former National chairman of the PDP and now a chieftain of the ACN, is another politician that could feature prominently on the chart of the opposition, should it consider giving its ticket to a northern minority and a Christian. Ogbeh, like Mark, is an Idoma man. A well respected politician, Ogbeh missed becoming a minister during Jonathan’s first coming (2010), when he was given a pre-condition to return to the PDP before being appointed. He has since his defection to the opposition before the 2007 poll, given his all, intellectual –wise, to the progress of the party. He was Ribadu’s campaign DG, during the 2011 poll.
Vice President Namadi Sambo
He is the current Vice President of the country. He is from Kaduna State, one of the states in the North-West zone, that is very vulnerable to the yet-to-be registered APC. Sambo, as Vice President, has not really done enough to rally the North behind the current administration. One of the reasons is that he has knowingly or unknowingly refused to allow political patronage in the North go beyond Kaduna. And even in Kaduna, it revolves around only his immediate political supporters within the PDP. Although he is not likely to run against Jonathan, should the president decide to run, based on the current happenings, Sambo would have to struggle hard to be retained as his running mate. He reaches out though, most often to the wrong people. If he must remain relevant politically, like Mark, he needs to carry out an urgent surgical operation on the people around him.
Sule Lamido
He is the current Jigawa governor. He is also a Fulani man. Jigawa State is one of the states in the North-West, the zone with the highest number of votes in the North. He is one of those that is already being mentioned as a possible presidential candidate. He is a founding member of the PDP, as such; it is unlikely that he would run against the decision of his political party, should the party decide otherwise. As a governor, he has succeeded in raising the bar of governance in the country going by his superlative performance in Jigawa State, in the last six years. Even though he is yet to say whether or not he would run, both IBB and Obasanjo have tacitly given their blessings to his presidential ambition. Only penultimate Wednesday, Obasanjo, in Dutse, the Jigawa state capital, described him as good ‘repairer’, which any society desirous of change, needs, adding that “… with Lamido, you know where you stand. When he says he will do, he will do. And when he says he will not do, he will not do. Let’s all pray he doesn’t say he will not do, because if he says he will not do, not even I, Obasanjo can pressurize him. And you need a man like that.
“Let me congratulate you, the people of Jigawa State and I congratulate myself too. Because if you can say ‘Obasanjo forced this one (Lamido) on us,’ this one ‘na good forcing o.’ I don’t know if he has told you that we bound him and brought him here. He didn’t want to do it. With what I have seen, I am happy that God gave me the ability to pressurize him. I also thank God that He gave him the ability to succumb to the pressure because we knew then that the state was crying for a repairer, and I knew he will be a good repairer and he has not disappointed me.
“You can help anybody to find a job. You cannot help him to do the job. If the person is not able to do the job, hen hen. For Sule Lamido however, we found a job for him, he was able, willing and competent to do the job,” Obasanjo, who said but for the love he had for Jigawa State, he ought to have been in Morocco, a day earlier, declared, amidst a thunderous applause.
Last line
For the North to gain power in 2015, it must certainly come together. This much was reechoed in April this year, in Minna, the Niger State capital, by no less a personality than the former President of the Court of Appeal and former Attorney-General of the defunct Northern regional government, Justice Mamman Nasir, who warned that unless the North remains united, 2015 would remain a mirage, in its struggle to regain political power in the country.
Historically speaking, while incumbent governors have lost nomination of their parties, and even lost during gubernatorial election where such incumbents decided to change party, no sitting President has either lost nomination of his party or the general election, since the country’s independence in 1960. Will Jonathan’s case therefore be different?
One of those working on the North’s presidency project, once volunteered a response to Sunday Sun on this poser. The politician said: “You may be right that history does not in any way support what we are planning to do. But I am one who believes that events and not personalities should shape history. To that extent, we are of the firm belief that events would ultimately throw up the situation that will force Jonathan to bow to voice of reason, instead of allowing himself to be embarrassed and disgraced out of office, because we are resolved to do this.
“Just take a look at the men around the President, tell me who among them can win election. The Vice President cannot deliver his base, Gulak (President’s Political Adviser) cannot win election in Adamawa, Anenih has been confined to the dustbin of political history and his Chief of Staff too, cannot win election.
“So tell me who will do the job for him? “Come to the North, again I agree with you that no single politician has the type of mass appeal that Buhari has. But you and I know that Nigeria’s presidential election goes beyond mass appeal in the North. At any rate, the votes in the North alone cannot make him President. It might be impossible, but I also believe that if the likes of Buhari and Atiku can bury their ambitions in the interest of the North and join in the search for a credible and acceptable person from among us, I think Jonathan may even chicken out of the race.”
