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North Korea Launch Could Be Test of New Attack Strategy, Japan Analysts Say

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TOKYO — The apparent success of four simultaneous missile launchings by North Korea on Monday raised new alarms about the threat to its neighbors and its progress toward developing an ability to overcome their ballistic missile defense systems, including those that have yet to be deployed.

According to the South Korean military, North Korea launched four ballistic missiles from its long-range rocket launch site on Monday morning.

In Japan, analysts said the launches suggested that North Korea could pose a more serious threat than indicated by previous tests.

Indeed, North Korea said on Tuesday that the tests were conducted by units “tasked to strike the bases of the U.S. imperialist aggressor forces in Japan in contingency.”

“That would mean a lot in terms of the defense of Tokyo, because North Korea might have been conducting a simulation of a ‘saturation attack’ in which they launch a number of missiles simultaneously in order to saturate the missile defense that Japan has,” said Narushige Michishita, director of the Security and International Studies Program at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. “It would be difficult for Japan to shoot down four missiles all at the same time because of our limited missile defense.”

The North’s Korean Central News Agency said Tuesday that the launches were timed to counter a joint United States-South Korean military exercise. The missile tests came three weeks after North Korea tested a missile during a visit to the United States by Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to meet with President Trump.

Japan’s Coast Guard sent out navigation warnings and stepped up air and sea patrols on Monday after three of the missiles landed within the country’s so-called exclusive economic zone, where fishing and cargo ships are active. The fourth landed outside it, though nearby.

This was not the first time that North Korean test missiles have fallen within that zone. In both August and September of last year, missiles came within 125 and 155 miles of the Japanese coastline. Monday’s missiles landed about 185 to 220 miles west of Akita Prefecture, on the northern coast of the main island, Honshu. The September launches involved three missiles fired simultaneously, but this time North Korea set off four missiles at once, all of which seemed to land successfully.

During a parliamentary committee session Monday morning, Mr. Abe said that the launches “clearly represent a new threat from North Korea.”

Japan and the United States requested an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council to discuss the launches, most likely for Wednesday.

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The missiles took off from Tongchang-ri, in northwestern North Korea, and flew an average of 620 miles before falling into the sea between North Korea and Japan, said Noh Jae-chon, a South Korean military spokesman. The type of missile fired was not immediately clear, but Mr. Noh said it was unlikely that they were intercontinental ballistic missiles, which the North had recently threatened to test launch.

In South Korea, the launch prompted South Korean security officials to call for the early deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense System, or Thaad, an advanced American antimissile system. China has protested Thaad as a threat to its own nuclear deterrence because its powerful radar would be able to track Chinese missile launches.

Mr. Michishita, of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, said the missile launches could accelerate a discussion within the Japanese government about whether Japan should acquire more missile defense systems, including Thaad. In January, Japan’s defense minister, Tomomi Inada, visited a United States Air Force base on Guam for a briefing on Thaad.

After North Korea’s missile test last month, Japan’s governing Liberal Democratic Party formed a committee to discuss the country’s ballistic missile defenses, and it plans to debate various options, including Thaad, early warning satellites and other defense systems that could intercept incoming missiles.

North Korea’s provocations could also embolden Mr. Abe in his campaign to raise military spending. “This can be used by the government as a pretty credible reason why we have to spend more on defense at the expense of other budget items,” including social welfare programs, Mr. Michishita said.

The Mainichi Shimbun newspaper reported in its evening edition that residents in Akita Prefecture, which sits closest to where the missiles landed in the Sea of Japan on Monday, were concerned by the increasing frequency of the tests.

Kazuhiro Asai, director of the Kitaura branch of the Fishermen’s Cooperative of Akita Prefecture, told The Mainichi Shimbun that members of the group were frightened by the launches.

According to the Korean Central News Agency, North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, inspected the weekend missile tests. Mr. Kim was quoted as saying, “the four ballistic rockets launched simultaneously are so accurate that they look like acrobatic flying corps in formation.”

TOKYO — The apparent success of four simultaneous missile launchings by North Korea on Monday raised new alarms about the threat to its neighbors and its progress toward developing an ability to overcome their ballistic missile defense systems, including those that have yet to be deployed.

According to the South Korean military, North Korea launched four ballistic missiles from its long-range rocket launch site on Monday morning.

In Japan, analysts said the launches suggested that North Korea could pose a more serious threat than indicated by previous tests.

Indeed, North Korea said on Tuesday that the tests were conducted by units “tasked to strike the bases of the U.S. imperialist aggressor forces in Japan in contingency.”

“That would mean a lot in terms of the defense of Tokyo, because North Korea might have been conducting a simulation of a ‘saturation attack’ in which they launch a number of missiles simultaneously in order to saturate the missile defense that Japan has,” said Narushige Michishita, director of the Security and International Studies Program at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. “It would be difficult for Japan to shoot down four missiles all at the same time because of our limited missile defense.”

The North’s Korean Central News Agency said Tuesday that the launches were timed to counter a joint United States-South Korean military exercise. The missile tests came three weeks after North Korea tested a missile during a visit to the United States by Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to meet with President Trump.

Japan’s Coast Guard sent out navigation warnings and stepped up air and sea patrols on Monday after three of the missiles landed within the country’s so-called exclusive economic zone, where fishing and cargo ships are active. The fourth landed outside it, though nearby.

This was not the first time that North Korean test missiles have fallen within that zone. In both August and September of last year, missiles came within 125 and 155 miles of the Japanese coastline. Monday’s missiles landed about 185 to 220 miles west of Akita Prefecture, on the northern coast of the main island, Honshu. The September launches involved three missiles fired simultaneously, but this time North Korea set off four missiles at once, all of which seemed to land successfully.

During a parliamentary committee session Monday morning, Mr. Abe said that the launches “clearly represent a new threat from North Korea.”

Japan and the United States requested an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council to discuss the launches, most likely for Wednesday.

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The missiles took off from Tongchang-ri, in northwestern North Korea, and flew an average of 620 miles before falling into the sea between North Korea and Japan, said Noh Jae-chon, a South Korean military spokesman. The type of missile fired was not immediately clear, but Mr. Noh said it was unlikely that they were intercontinental ballistic missiles, which the North had recently threatened to test launch.

In South Korea, the launch prompted South Korean security officials to call for the early deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense System, or Thaad, an advanced American antimissile system. China has protested Thaad as a threat to its own nuclear deterrence because its powerful radar would be able to track Chinese missile launches.

Mr. Michishita, of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, said the missile launches could accelerate a discussion within the Japanese government about whether Japan should acquire more missile defense systems, including Thaad. In January, Japan’s defense minister, Tomomi Inada, visited a United States Air Force base on Guam for a briefing on Thaad.

After North Korea’s missile test last month, Japan’s governing Liberal Democratic Party formed a committee to discuss the country’s ballistic missile defenses, and it plans to debate various options, including Thaad, early warning satellites and other defense systems that could intercept incoming missiles.

North Korea’s provocations could also embolden Mr. Abe in his campaign to raise military spending. “This can be used by the government as a pretty credible reason why we have to spend more on defense at the expense of other budget items,” including social welfare programs, Mr. Michishita said.

The Mainichi Shimbun newspaper reported in its evening edition that residents in Akita Prefecture, which sits closest to where the missiles landed in the Sea of Japan on Monday, were concerned by the increasing frequency of the tests.

Kazuhiro Asai, director of the Kitaura branch of the Fishermen’s Cooperative of Akita Prefecture, told The Mainichi Shimbun that members of the group were frightened by the launches.

According to the Korean Central News Agency, North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, inspected the weekend missile tests. Mr. Kim was quoted as saying, “the four ballistic rockets launched simultaneously are so accurate that they look like acrobatic flying corps in formation.”

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